Punctuality and Capacity in Railway Investment: A Socio-Economic Assessment for Finland

This paper presents two methods designed to provide quantitative data for analysing the socio-economic impacts of rail network improvements developed for the Finnish Transport Agency. The first is a capacity estimation method; it adapts the UIC 406 method to the characteristics of the Finnish rail network. The second method estimates delay propagation based on the key characteristics of lines; in this case distinct formulas were developed using regression for single- and double-track lines. The proposed methods were evaluated based on actual and simulated data from Finland and the UK. They provide network saturation and delay data for evaluation of capital improvements by network managers. The study results were approved and adopted by the Finnish Transport Agency.