The South West Railway mainline to Weymouth connects London’s Liverpool Station with the southwest. Two of the mainline’s four tracks are used for intercity service and two for local service. The intercity line operates up to 24 trains per hour per direction in peak periods. Despite the high density of block sections, this high level of service increases the probability of delays that quickly propagate to following trains.
In this study TRENOlab analysed current operations, evaluated the proposed 2018 timetable, and developed improvement recommendations. As part of the project we identified critical trains and delay propagation scenarios, created and calibrated a microscopic simulation model of the critical Surbiton-Waterloo section, used this model to test the draft December 2018 timetable paying specific attention to the additional platforms provided at Waterloo Station (the former international platforms). A sensitivity analysis performed in the study demonstrated that during peak operations, the number of trains is so high that even with almost perfectly on-time departures, delays would propagate.
The positive results of this study convinced Network Rail to continue the collaboration with TRENOlab in testing the following May 19, and December 19 timetable drafts, as well as other investment and operational scenarios
- Operations analysis
- Microscopic simulation model development
- Microscopic simulation model calibration
- Microscopic stochastic simulation