The Norwegian Railway Directorate Jernbaneverket manages about 4100 km of mostly single track railway line. It is pursuing an ambitious improvement plan to increase network capacity. The R2027 project will identify and define the key requirements needed to cost-effectively reach the target capacity and timetable robustness.
trenolab assisted Jernbaneverket comparing the robustness of the 2016 and 2027 timetables and infrastructure configurations of the Oslo Region (Østlandet). The analysis considered both a set of standard delays and a sensitivity analysis of increasing delays and dwell times. The simulation considered not only the train delays, but also passenger delays, weighting all results by their expected number.
In a first part of the study, the model R2016 network was calibrated against the real data, iteratively adjusting the stochastic parameters until a satisfyingly low residual error was obtained. Then, the same settings were applied to the 2027 model, and the performances of the two models were compared. The study results confirmed that the 2027 timetable performed better in all reasonable delay conditions, with the 2016 timetable performing better only in event of a sharp increase of delays. Finally, the analysis of the delays in R2027 allowed planners to identify its main weaknesses, most of which could be solved by slight timetable changes.